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Fire ExiaTier 2

at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 11/14

decks
5 (7.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14 5-7-2
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.9% avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
47.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1317 · median 1259 · range 1197–1567 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000 Q1 1211 Q3 1394 1656
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 13.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 48.8% -1.9
Fire Crux Mage 10.6% 0
Fire Slimes 9.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.8% -0.4
Fire Aggro 7.6% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 49.6% -0.3
Fire Arcane 6.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Allies 6.1% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 4.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 48.8% -1.9
Water Tera Mage 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.8% +1.3
Wind Astra Cleric 3.0% 0
Wind Cats 3.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Razorgale 3.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 49.2% -1.3
Wind Shadowstrike 3.0% 0
Wind Slimes 3.0% 0
Fire Astra Arisanna 1.5% 0
Fire Astra Cleric 1.5% 0
Fire Beast 1.5% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.5% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 48.5% -1.4
Fire Tera Mage 1.5% 0
Water Arisanna 1.5% 0
Water Penguin Mill 1.5% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 1.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.2% +0.3
Wind Crux Mage 1.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.8% +1.3
Wind Exia 1.5% 0
Wind Tera Mage 1.5% 0
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 2 0
Reduce to Ash +1.00 2 0 0
Exia Sight -1.00 0 2 0
Blazing Lunge -1.00 0 2 0
Proof of Life -1.00 0 2 0
Under Fire +1.00 2 0 0
Crimson Prescience -1.00 0 2 0
Sword of Seeking +1.00 2 0 0
Flame-Rune Swordsman +1.00 2 0 0
Flame Sweep -1.00 0 2 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -1.00 0 2 0
Fast Cure +1.00 2 0 0
Desperate Cavalier -1.00 0 2 0
Hasty Messenger +1.00 2 0 0
Morgan, Soul Guide -1.00 0 2 0
Hemorrhaging Rend +1.00 2 0 0
Nullifying Mirror +1.00 2 0 0
Potion of Healing -1.00 0 2 0
Firetongue -1.00 0 2 0
Spirit of Fire -0.50 0 1 1
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.50 1 0 0
Savage Swing -0.50 0 1 1
Meltdown +0.50 1 0 1
Bloodbond Bladesworn +0.50 1 0 0
Backup Charger -0.50 0 1 1
Gentle Respite +0.50 1 0 0
Thunderclap +0.50 1 0 0
Clumsy Apprentice -0.50 0 1 1
Quicksilver Grail -0.50 0 1 1
Incapacitate -0.50 0 1 1
Relentless Outburst -0.50 0 1 1
Enrage -0.50 0 1 1
Fragmented Spirit of Fire +0.50 1 0 0
Heavenly Guide +0.50 1 0 0
Honorable Vanguard +0.50 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.50 1 0 0
Turbo Charge +0.50 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/14482/archetypes/Fire Exia