← Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 11/14
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 11/14
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Beast | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Wind Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Desperate Cavalier | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Firetongue | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Meltdown | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bloodbond Bladesworn | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Enrage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |